The final piece of the 2022 Senate puzzle is about to be set.
Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s reelection campaign could be one of November’s most competitive races — but that depends on who wins Tuesday’s Republican primary in New Hampshire, the last nominating contest left in the battle to swing the 50-50 Senate.
The GOP’s establishment wing has lined up behind state Senate President Chuck Morse, who is mounting a late charge for the nomination against longtime polling leader Don Bolduc. But a leading Democratic super PAC has been attacking Morse on the airwaves, the latest example of the party’s involvement in GOP primaries.
New Hampshire Republicans are also picking two candidates to challenge each of the state’s vulnerable Democratic House incumbents. And just down I-95, Democrats in Rhode Island will decide whether to keep their appointed governor, Dan McKee, who took over in Providence after Gina Raimondo resigned to become President Joe Biden’s commerce secretary.
Not counting Louisiana, which runs its “jungle primaries” on November’s Election Day, Tuesday marks the final primaries of 2022. Here’s what to watch for:
An expensive Senate battle
The stakes: The GOP primary for Senate in New Hampshire had been sleepy — until the calendar turned to September.
On Sept. 1, a newly created super PAC, White Mountain PAC, began a two-week, nearly $5 million ad blitz to boost Morse. The spots called Morse “one tough conservative” and also slammed Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general and Morse’s top competitor, for losing his last Senate primary and having “crazy ideas.”
White Mountain PAC won’t have to reveal the source of its funding until next month. But elevating the more mainstream Morse over Bolduc, who has ties to right-wing figures in the GOP, is a priority for Republicans seeking to defeat Hassan. The incumbent is one of four Senate Democrats up for reelection this year in states Biden carried by fewer than 10 percentage points in 2020. Morse also picked up an election-eve endorsement from the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu.
But like in other states, Democrats were not content to let the Republican primary play out on its own. Two days after White Mountain PAC hit the airwaves, Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, launched a $3.2 million buy.
The Democratic ad is a negative spot hitting Morse, and it’s a two-fer. The spot doesn’t explicitly promote the more extreme Bolduc, as the party has done — controversially — in other races. But the negative hits on Morse are ones that could hurt him in a general election as well asamong more Donald Trump-aligned voters in the primary: “Mitch McConnell’s Washington establishment is going all-in for Chuck Morse,” a narrator says in the ad.
One town to watch: Laconia. In Bolduc’s 2020 GOP primary defeat to Corky Messner — who ran an uninspired campaign against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Bolduc got just a tick under 70 percent of the vote in his hometown.
Morse will likely clean up in the Merrimack Valley, home to his state Senate district.
A first-in-the-nation prequel
The stakes: Nothing brings out ambitious politicians like a primary in an early presidential nominating state.
And that’s why the race for the GOP nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st District has seen so much involvement from national figures.
Among those backing 2020 nominee Matt Mowers’ bid for a rematch with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas are: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Trump cabinet official Ric Grenell and the top two House Republicans. In 25-year-old challenger Karoline Leavitt’s camp are Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
New Hampshire Republican 1st Congressional District candidate Gail Huff-Brown, left, speaks as Matt Mowers looks on during a debate, Sept. 8, 2022, in Henniker, N.H.
