Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels, left, speaks as former President Donald Trump, right, listens at a rally in Waukesha, Wis., on Aug. 5, 2022.
Morry Gash/AP Photo

Another big contest in the state features a Trump-backed candidate challenging Vos, an incredibly powerful figure in Wisconsin politics. Despite Vos’ moves to fund an investigation into the 2020 election in the state, his unwillingness to entertain “decertifying” the election — a popular rallying cry on the right which is not legally possible — earned Trump’s enmity.

In an eleventh-hour twist, Michael Gableman — the former state Supreme Court justice that Vos hired to run that investigation — also backed Adam Steen, Vos’ challenger.

The Trump-versus-local Republicans dynamic is also on display Tuesday in Connecticut, where the Republican contest to face Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) features former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, who won the state party’s endorsement, and Trump-backed Republican National Committee Member Leora Levy.

Back in Wisconsin, the Democratic primary in the state to challenge Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, meanwhile, has been stripped of any last-minute uncertainty. All the major Democratic candidates ended their campaigns and endorsed Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes over the last month.

A special election test

Minnesota will host a special election Tuesday to fill the seat of the late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn, one in a series of August special House elections following the blockbuster Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade in June.

Former state Rep. Brad Finstad, a moderate backed by the Republican Main Street Partnership and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is taking on former Hormel Foods CEO Jeff Ettinger. Thanks to some self-funding, Ettinger has outspent Finstad, $1.2 million to $508,000, as of late July. But Republicans are favored to hold this southern district, which Trump carried by 9 points in 2020.

Voters in Kansas last week overwhelmingly rejected a state constitutional amendment that would have cleared the way to new restrictions on abortion in the state, which Democratic operatives pointed to as a clear sign abortion policy could be a motivating factor in the midterms.

But it is uncertain how much voters’ preferences on abortion politics will translate to the battle for Congress, and the margin in Minnesota could provide a new datapoint about the state of the post-Dobbs political environment.

Vermont’s glass ceiling moment

Vermont is the only state in the country that has never sent a woman to Congress. That’s about to change. The two leading Democrats in the race for the at-large district are Lt. Gov. Molly Gray and state Senate President Becca Balint. Scant public polling has given the Bernie Sanders-endorsed Balint an edge, and a Democrat is heavily favored to win in the fall in this liberal bastion.

Democratic U.S. House hopeful Lt. Gov. Molly Gray speaks to voters in Middlesex, Vt., on July 20, 2022.