Seven of the 15 members expected to join the Blue Dogs this year, including Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are departing after a heated disagreement over a potential name change for the moderate bloc.
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When the vote failed, members began to depart the group. Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), who replaced retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield, was expected to join but declined after the group decided not to rebrand, according to two people familiar with the situation. A website for the Blue Dog PAC, the political arm of the coalition, was quietly updated last week to list eight remaining members: Bishop, Thompson, Gottheimer, Golden, Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.).

In fact, though Nickel was endorsed by the Blue Dog PAC, he has not decided whether or not he is joining the group, according to two people familiar with his thinking. That leaves seven members to begin the 118th Congress.

Brutal election cycles tend to decimate the Blue Dogs’ roster because the group is typically composed of swing-seat members. Last cycle alone, redistricting felled former Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.), Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) and Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.). Meanwhile, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) lost his primary and former coalition Chair Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) retired.

Many Blue Dogs left after the midterms are no longer in swing seats, thanks to redistricting and changing demographics. Schneider’s suburban Chicago district, for example, has gone from a battleground to safe Democratic turf. Sherrill, who flipped a tough swing seat in 2018, received a significantly more Democratic district last cycle under New Jersey’s new lines. And Case, who has represented both of Hawaii’s two districts at different times, is now in the more staunchly Democratic Honolulu-based district.

The Blue Dogs could grow beyond their seven current members if they launch a successful recruitment push in 2023. But its membership is a far cry from its peak of 54 centrist Democrats during the Obama administration — let alone the heyday of 2007, when the group decided to cap its membership to no more than 20 percent of the full Democratic caucus.

The conservative tea party wave of 2010 toppled more than half of the Blue Dogs. But after a previous all-time low from 2015 to 2017, the group regained strength in the 2018 midterms, when it ushered in a historically diverse freshmen class — including Sherrill and Spanberger.

Throughout the group’s history, it hasn’t been unusual for some members to leave for various reasons. Progressive Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) once belonged to the Blue Dogs, for instance, as did former Reps. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) and Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), both of them former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chiefs.

Not until this year had their numbers ever dropped below 15 members, according to data maintained by the coalition.