Abortion-rights activists rally at the Indiana Statehouse following Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, on June 25, 2022, in Indianapolis.
Jeffrey Collins/AP Photo

Even Republicans who oppose such exceptions are doubtful of the politics of it. South Carolina state Rep. John McCravy, who is chairing a special ad hoc committee on abortion, personally opposes exceptions in the case of rape or incest. But he isn’t sure whether his Republican colleagues feel the same way.

He said if legislation passes out of committee without rape and incest exceptions, he anticipates the vote could be much tighter than proponents may expect.

“If we get this bill through the Judiciary [Committee] and it’s got no exceptions in it, and it gets to the floor, I think it’ll be a close vote,” McCravy said.

Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, said he will press lawmakers in his state — who banned abortions after the detection of fetal cardiac activity in 2019 with no exceptions for rape and incest — to not change their minds on exceptions when they meet later this year.

Endorsed candidates, he said, signed surveys saying they wouldn’t support such exceptions. Gonidakis added that he believes the 10-year-old should have been able to legally receive an abortion under Ohio law because of the health risks of carrying a pregnancy to term at that age. But whether the law needs to be clarified to make that more explicit for doctors fearing prosecution is a question for state lawmakers, he said.

“That’s a policy decision we should discuss at the statehouse, both pro-choicers and pro-lifers. That’s why we have a legislature. Let’s go have that conversation and sit down and talk about it,” Gonidakis said.

In Indiana, Destiny Wells, a former deputy state attorney general who is also the Democratic nominee for secretary of state, said in an interview that she hoped the case would make anti-abortion lawmakers think twice about the impact of their legislation.

“I would hope that the state of Ohio expecting a 10-year-old to carry her rapist’s child being brought to national light would slow down anti-abortion legislation,” she said.

It’s unclear if it will. Spokespersons for both of Indiana’s state legislative chambers did not make any caucus members available for interviews to discuss whether the specific case would shape their legislative approach.

Asked whether the high-profile nature of the 10-year-old’s case complicated the path toward further abortion restrictions in the special session scheduled to begin July 25, a former longtime veteran Indiana GOP lawmaker told POLITICO: “I think everyone is aware of the case, but I don’t think it will be a driving factor.” He added that he expects exceptions ultimately to include rape, incest, and life of the mother.

“More important is how they seek to address pressure from interest groups on both sides of the issue,” he said, “whose viewpoints may not align with the majority sentiment of the general public.”