Polls show Hochul leading by between 4 and 11 points — a narrower-than-expected margin that has Democrats on edge.
Yuki Iwamura/AP Photo

Zeldin is making inroads in the city, where high turnout has buoyed statewide Democrats for generations. Polling shows Hochul continues to dominate across the five boroughs, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than seven to one.

A Quinnipiac University survey Oct. 18 found her leading Zeldin 59 percent to 37 percent in the city, but only beating him by 4 points overall — one of the closest public polls. A Siena College poll released the same day showed her with a much better city advantage: 70 percent to 23 percent and winning overall by 11 points.

Both polls would have stunned Democrats four years ago, when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo bested Republican opponent Marc Molinaro in the city 84 percent to 16 percent.

Zeldin is fighting in the margins, hoping to scoop up enough voters who are frustrated with the party in power on crime and inflation.

He has been campaigning in the city’s few GOP strongholds on Staten Island and in parts of Queens, while Hochul aims to energize a base in the Democratic bastions of Brooklyn and Manhattan that her supporters fear is not enthused. She’s planning a unity rally with former President Bill Clinton in Brooklyn, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Mayor Eric Adams and Attorney General Tish James on Saturday.

And President Joe Biden is expected to join her in Yonkers on Sunday to try to firm up support in the suburbs, according to The Capitol Pressroom, a public radio show. It would be Biden’s third visit to New York since early October.

“Ultimately, at the end of the day, I think it’s about making sure you drive turnout and making sure you get people to pay attention to these elections — that they are important; they are consequential,” said state Sen. Jamaal Bailey (D-Bronx), who heads the Bronx Democratic Committee.

Republicans are showing “enthusiasm that we’ve never seen in four cycles,” according to City Council Member Joe Borelli, whose Staten Island district is heavily Republican. He also works on a pro-Zeldin PAC.

Building support across New York

Republican candidate for New York Governor Rep. Lee Zeldin, right, stands with his daughters Arianna, center, and Mikayla, left, as he speaks to reporters before marching in the annual Columbus Day Parade, Oct. 10, 2022, in New York.