Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is entering his reelection contest in a rare position for a red state Democrat: the frontrunner.
It is a remarkable chain of events for Beshear, the son of a popular former governor who upset then-Republican Gov. Matt Bevin by just 5,000 votes in 2019. Beshear is riding into his reelection bid with sky high popularity, not just for a Democratic governor in a state that Donald Trump carried by nearly 26 points in 2020, but for any governor generally.
Republicans believe Beshear is beatable, but they admit it will be tough.
“I think he’s the favorite,” said Scott Jennings, a prominent Republican consultant in Kentucky. “Do I think he can be beaten? Yeah, I do. But I think it’s going to be expensive, and it’s going to take a while.”
Beshear will have all the advantages generally granted to incumbent governors: the power of the bully pulpit, sky high name ID and approval, and a deep warchest — as of the end of last year, he had over $4.7 million in the bank. A late January survey from Mason-Dixon Polling found that 61 percent of voters in the state approved of the job he was doing, and he had notable leads over potential challengers.
Beshear has hosted regular “Team Kentucky” updates and has been ever-present for Kentuckians, who during his tenure in office have navigated the coronavirus pandemic and a string of natural disasters.
And Democrats in the state point to a boom of economic growth during his tenure in office. A page on Beshear’s official website brags about delivering “the highest and second-highest revenue surpluses in the history of Kentucky, thanks to strong fiscal management and a hot, record-breaking economy,” which is anticipated to be a major theme in his campaign.
Beshear is trying to follow the playbook of a handful of other recent successful Democratic governors in red states, who were able to secure reelection by casting themselves as competent, good-government-minded bureaucrats focused on fixing kitchen-table problems. They also look to avoid national politics — Beshear said in an interview with the Associated Press in December that President Joe Biden likely wouldn’t be appearing on the trail with him — and hot-button culture war issues.
“I think the through line there is you have a popular Democratic governor who’s managed the economy well, and has the economy roaring. Those are difficult to beat,” said Eric Hyers, who is managing Beshear’s campaign. Hyers pointed to the success of Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly — who won reelection last year — and former Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who won in 2012 and 2016 and whose campaign he previously ran.
Republicans are expected to spend heavily to try to bring Beshear back to earth. But first the party must land on a nominee, with a major pileup of candidates vying in a May 16 primary for the right to face Beshear.
Daniel Cameron has been widely viewed as a rising star in the state and nationally and is generally viewed as the early frontrunner to win the Republican nomination.