Fetterman, shown above, is leading Oz by nearly 10 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s public polling average, though individual public polls in the last month have put Fetterman ahead by anywhere from 2 points to a scarcely believable 21 points.
Ryan Collerd/AP Photo

The Supreme Court ruling ending the national right to abortion also improved Democrats’ political standing across the country this summer.

But Democrats have long expected the race to become closer in Pennsylvania, a perennial swing state where the last two presidential elections have been decided by about 1 percentage point or less.

Democrats also anticipated that a wave of Republican money, including from the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, would turn a number of battleground Senate contests more competitive after Labor Day.

Earlier this week, Rick Scott, chair of the Senate Republican campaign arm, announced at a Senate GOP luncheon that an internal poll conducted in Wisconsin now showed incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leading Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by 4 percentage points.

A public poll released on Wednesday also showed Johnson with an advantage, though by a slimmer margin. Previous public surveys had found Barnes in the front.