While Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan still has a narrow lead over Republican Don Bolduc, she is no longer a significant favorite.
Ted S. Warren/AP Photo
New Hampshire firmly in play, Washington State on the board
In addition to moving New Hampshire to “Toss Up,” two other races are moving in Republicans’ direction: Sen. Marco Rubio has all-but-cemented his lead in Florida, and his race shifts from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican,” despite the well-funded challenge he’s faced from Democratic Rep. Val Demings.
And the Senate race in Washington State has become more competitive. Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is still the favorite, but Republican Tiffany Smiley — who is outspending Murray in the race’s final month — has gained ground. The race moves from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”
Though polls have tightened in Washington, Smiley is still hampered by the state’s partisan lean. In the August primary, Murray (52 percent) and Democratic candidates combined for more than 55 percent of the vote. The political environment is trending better for Republicans now, but that’s a steep hill to climb.
In moving to “Toss Up,” New Hampshire joins five other states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Yet not all of them are pure coin flips. Hassan’s slight edge in her raceis similar to GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s modest advantage in Wisconsin. Numerous public surveys this week showed Johnson still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes, though by threadbare margins.
Like Arizona, which moved to “Toss Up” last week, the tightening in New Hampshire has come despite some national Republican groups pulling out of the state.
But whilethe top GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has been absent, more ideological groups have filled the gap, like the Steve Wynn-funded Our American Century ($2.9 million in ads) and the Heritage Foundation’s political arm Sentinel Action Fund ($1 million).
New York governor moves to Lean Democratic
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is still the favorite to win a full term in her race, but Republican Rep.Lee Zeldin is mounting a furious charge in the race’s closing weeks. New York, which has sat at “Likely Democratic” since the Election Forecast launched, moves one notch over, to “Lean Democratic.”
Zeldin’s focus on crime has proved potent — polls show more voters rank it as their most important issue than any other topic — but he’s still running as an ally of former President Donald Trump and an opponent of abortion rights in New York State.
Still, the closer-than-expected race at the top of the ticket is causing some agita for New York Democrats downballot. Three of the 12 House races moving toward Republicans are in New York.
The three other gubernatorial races shifting toward Republicans are in states Democrats hoped to contest earlier in the cycle, but where GOP incumbents have commanding leads: New Hampshire, Ohio and Vermont each move from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican.”
Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) speaks during a rally with former President Barack Obama, Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022, in North Las Vegas.