While Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan still has a narrow lead over Republican Don Bolduc, she is no longer a significant favorite.
John Locher/AP Photo

GOP closes in on House majority

Republicans are now favored in 215 House districts — just 3 shy of the majority mark.

Two contests previously rated “Toss Up” are now “Lean Republican”: A newly-drawn open seat in Colorado and DemocraticRep. Cindy Axne’s race in Iowa. Much of the polling in Axne’s district shows a tied race — including a publicly released internal poll from Republican Zach Nunn’s campaign — but undecided voters are expected to break against the incumbent.

Meanwhile, four races previously rated “Lean Democratic” are now in the “Toss Up” category: the seats belonging to Reps. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, along with an open seat on Western Long Island belonging to retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.).

Republicans have made a late play forthe Maloney seat. Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, has reported spending $8.8 million — mostly in the final three weeks — to oust the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm this year.

Unlike other districts that have seen last-minute spending, Maloney’s seat is a “Toss Up” — neither he nor Republican Mike Lawler is a significant favorite.

In other seats shifting in this update, late spending has made them more competitive, but Democrats retain an advantage.

Reps. Julia Brownley (D-Calif.), Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) all shifted from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic,” as did an open seat in Pittsburgh, where Democratic candidate Summer Lee is facing both a barrage of late spending by AIPAC’s new super PAC and a potentially confusing situation on the ballot. Her GOP opponent, Mike Doyle, shares the same name as the district’s retiring Democratic congressman.

One race did move toward Democrats: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot is now the underdog to win reelection in his Cincinnati-based district. That race moves from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.”