Prop 1 is expected to drive supporters of abortion rights to the polls in a way that will likely hurt GOP candidates in the tighter races such as Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia, who represents the suburbs at the northern edge of L.A.
Christy Smith For Congress via AP Photo

Smith has been emphasizing the abortion issue since before the Supreme Court’s decision. She has continued to make it a campaign centerpiece, tweeting about “Roevember” and launching a campaign ad saying Garcia was “leading the nationwide effort to ban abortion” and noting he signed on to a legal brief urging the end of abortion protections. Garcia has remained focused on economic issues like inflation and taxes. He has asserted the Supreme Court’s decision would not affect abortion access in California.

CA-41 (Calvert vs. Rollins): This desert district has long eluded Democrats, but redistricting has made it more competitive — registration is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats — while pulling in more voters who tilt left on social issues. It now encompasses the LGBTQ outpost of Palm Springs. Democrats see their best chance in a generation to unseat long-serving Rep. Ken Calvert.

Democratic prosecutor Will Rollins has warned Calvert’s stances would lead to the criminalization of abortion and the prosecution of women seeking them. He has also invoked the issue to rally the district’s sizable LGBTQ population, noting Justice Clarence Thomas’ concurring opinion suggesting the logic of Dobbs could lead to the end of protections for same-sex Americans. “Our community’s fight to protect our personal freedom is inextricably intertwined with women’s right to protect their reproductive freedom,” he said in an interview.

Calvert said in a statement that the true abortion extremist in the race is Rollins, arguing the Democrat’s support for “unrestricted abortion rights” could encompass third-trimester abortions. Rollins counters that that Roe did not, in fact, allow abortion without restrictions.

CA-13 (Gray vs. Duarte): This open seat in California’s agriculture-dominated Central Valley could be one of the state’s most competitive as Democratic Assemblymember Adam Gray vies with farmer John Duarte, whom House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy backed before the primary. Republicans collectively finished a few points ahead in the primary.

While Gray has not focused on abortion rights, he has channeled $50,000 to passing California’s abortion-guaranteeing constitutional amendment, and a Democrat-aligned PAC has launched ads focusing on Duarte’s abortion record — the kinds of moves that could matter in a tight race.

CA-22 (Valadao vs. Salas): Rep. David Valadao has defied double-digit Democratic registration advantages to win a series of reelection campaigns, surrendering his seat in 2018 before reclaiming it in 2020. But Democrats are bullish on Democratic Assemblymember Rudy Salas’ prospects and hope a post-Dobbs backlash can help him unseat Valadao.

Assemblymember Rudy Salas asks questions during a hearing in Sacramento, Calif.