ALBANY, N.Y. — New York’s tight race for governor isn’t creeping up on anyone.

A year ago inneighboringNew Jersey, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy was a shoo-in for an easy reelection. The polls showed it, and his supporters felt it.But they were wrong: he won, but only by 3 percent.

Now, the close New York contest between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin has galvanized both parties heading into the final feverish days of the campaign. Worry about turnout has led to a flood of money, events and special guests — from Bill and Hillary Clinton to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

“When Democrats turn out, we win,” Hochul said Friday morning on CNN. “I think what’s not being captured in the polls is that there really is, finally, energy on the ground. It doesn’t manifest itself earlier, but you only need to peak on Election Day.”

Polls show Hochul leading by between 4 and 11 points — a narrower-than-expected margin that has Democrats on edge. A recent internal Hochul poll had her up single digits, with less than 50 percent of the vote, according to a Democratic consultant briefed on the results.

Democrats hope the polls serve as a wake-up call to their base — whose sheer enrollment dwarfs Republicans and independents combined.

In another unusual turn for deeply blue New York, the money race has also tightened in the campaign’s home stretch. While Hochul has the fundraising edge overall, independent groups have pumped a remarkable $20 million through two super PACs to help Zeldin in recent weeks, campaign finance records show.

As a result, the ad spending is close, with Zeldin and his groups dropping $9.3 million into ads since Oct. 18 compared to $9 million by Hochul and her allies, according to data from AdImpact. Most of the money has been spent in the expensive New York City media market.

“The fact that the polls are tighter than anyone expected gives both sides a great opportunity and a great message to rev up their voters with, ‘It’s close, we could win. It’s close we could lose,'” said Siena College poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg, who has managed several Democratic statewide races.

The race will come down to regional benchmarks that have long been the recipe for New York elections: Republicans must win upstate, the suburbs and more than 30 percent of the vote in New York City. Democrats need to run up the score in the heavily blue city, and then break even or come out slightly ahead in the rest of the state.

Zeldin acknowledged the winning balance, which a statewide Republican hasn’t struck since George Pataki won a third term as governor in 2002.

“If you get less than 30 percent in New York City, you can’t win,” Zeldin said in an interview last week. “If you get more than 35 percent in New York City, it starts to become very difficult to lose, depending on what that number is north of 35 percent.”

State Democratic party chair Jay Jacobs told reporters Tuesday that the competitive race will drive turnout and help Democrats, particularly in the city.

“We’ve got a robust field program throughout the state and particularly in the city,” he said.

But he also warned that Hochul might struggle in the New York City suburbs, including Zeldin’s home turf on Long Island, which boasts nearly 2.2 million voters — about 18 percent of the state total.

“We may fall short in the suburbs, but we’re fighting hard for the suburbs,” said Jacobs, who is also the Democratic chair in in one of Long Island’s two counties.

Buffalo-native Hochul will fare better on her home turf upstate than other recent gubernatorial candidates, Jacobs predicts.

“She’s very well liked, particularly in Western New York, not just in her home county,” he said.

A battle for New York City voters

Gov. Kathy Hochul talks to customers at Veselka, a Ukrainian restaurant in the East Village, Monday, Oct. 31, 2022, in New York.