New Hampshire Republican U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate, Sept. 7, 2022, in Henniker, N.H.
David Goldman/AP Photo

But if McKee wins, it will mark the first midterm since 2010 that all the gubernatorial incumbents who sought renomination prevailed. In each of 2014 and 2018, one governor was ousted in the primary.

No matter which candidate wins the primary, Democrats are projected to hold onto the governorship. POLITICO’s Election Forecast rates the race as “Likely Democratic.”

One city to watch: Providence. The state capital accounts for roughly 20 percent of the Democratic primary vote. None of the three candidates can claim a natural base there: McKee is the former mayor of Cumberland, while Gorbea is from North Kingstown and Foulkes lives in Narragansett.

An open House seat

The stakes: Rhode Island got lucky last year. Long predicted to lose one of its two House seats in the decennial reapportionment, the state surprisingly kept both, and Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin’s decision to retire means there’s an open seat up for grabs this fall.

The Democratic primary favorite is state Treasurer Seth Magaziner, whom Langevin has endorsed to succeed him. But also running is Sarah Morgenthau, who is seeking to become the state’s first female Democratic member of Congress.

The Democratic nominee will face Republican Allan Fung, who is unopposed in the GOP primary. Fung, the former Cranston mayor who lost two gubernatorial races to Raimondo, is hoping a step down to a House seat will bring better luck.

Republicans have touted Fung as a strong recruit — including a visit from McCarthy, the House GOP leader, on the campaign trail — but the race has notably not shown up as a top target for GOP outside group advertising. That suggests that Fung will be a decided underdog unless the political environment improves for Republicans before Election Day.

A town to watch: Cranston. Rhode Island’s second-largest city is Fung’s home base, but it votes reliably Democratic at the federal level.