Israelis say this is their 9/11 — worse even, given the proportion of people killed in a country of 10 million.
Ohad Zwigenberg/AP

A Dangerous Parallel

I’ve covered wars, genocides and suicide attacks in a career heavily shaped by the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. Such man-made disasters often have a predictable arc.

First, there’s common shock and anguish, followed by a unity of purpose among the aggrieved. Over time, that cohesion fades as the response gets messy, economic costs rise and the civilian body count goes up. A later phase, such as occupation, brings more challenges.

In the gut-wrenching days that followed the 9/11 attacks, moral certainty was combined with a strange fog. Americans of all backgrounds rallied behind former President George W. Bush, who assured us we would win the new war on terror. The Onion, meanwhile, published a story headlined: “U.S. vows to defeat whoever it is we’re at war with.”

In fairness, we did define targets. It was Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda. Then it was the Taliban who had sheltered him in Afghanistan. Then Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. Washington soon found itself policing entire countries. U.S. failures, especially killing civilians, further radicalized populations, fueling the rise of vicious terrorist groups like ISIS, who unfairly cited Islam as a rationale.

The problem with America’s early response, a Pakistani writer once told me, is that the U.S. didn’t take enough time to grieve before it took action. If it had, it might have moved with more humility and more caution, and it probably would have had more success.

Instead, the U.S. lacked patience and a long-term strategy. Leaders often driven by politics kept changing everything from the end goal to the troop numbers. As more people died with no end to the fighting, more Americans wanted out.

More than two decades after 9/11, al-Qaeda lives on in various deadly forms. The Taliban are back in charge in Afghanistan. ISIS lost its main territory after a yearslong, multinational military campaign, but the movement still exists.

It is tough to raise such lessons with Israelis now given their heartbreak. But early decisions are what could have the most long-term impact.

This is not just a moral argument about avoiding killing innocents. It’s a practical one about how to win a war.

Israel’s Vague Game Plan

While launching airstrikes, Israel has been prepping a potential ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, the impoverished territory under Hamas’ control. Gaza is roughly 140 square miles and home to 2.2 million people, the vast majority of them civilians. Some have American citizenship.

The militant group is believed to have roughly 30,000 fighters, but many of its leaders live in exile. The militants in Gaza often position themselves and their arsenals in civilian areas. Israel faces intense urban warfare if it wants to seize control of the area.

Israelis are clear that they will not repeat what they’ve done in the past: Stage operations, often through airstrikes, that hurt but didn’t end Hamas.

“We cannot do another round that they’ll be weakened and then get stronger,” the Israeli official said.

But neither Israelis nor U.S. officials appear sure how to define deleting Hamas. Is it killing or capturing its leaders? Going after all of its fighters? Destroying its entire arsenal? All of the above? (There also are other militant groups in Gaza.)

Given Israel’s failure to foresee this latest attack, it’s possible it doesn’t fully understand the enemy.

The overall death toll so far is in the thousands and no one knows how long Israel’s active battle with Hamas will last. The most concrete prediction I could get from a U.S. or Israeli official was three to six months, but it was just a guess.

U.S. Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer has said that “this is an operation that is likely to unfold over weeks, if not longer.” Some aides to President Joe Biden tell me that the level of Israeli public outrage could mean sustained support for an unusually long campaign.

Biden says he’s urged Israel to respect the “rules of war,” while Secretary of State Antony Blinken went slightly further on Thursday, urging Israel to “take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.” Other U.S. officials wouldn’t detail private talks with Israelis, but one senior administration official told me they have urged Israeli leaders to keep the “moral high ground.”

That’s not enough, especially given the death tolls Israel already has inflicted on Gaza since the Hamas attacks began over the weekend, said Yousef Munayyer, a specialist in Israeli-Palestinian issues. He noted that prominent Israelis have been shockingly blunt about the likelihood that many Palestinian civilians will die.

“All the conditions are there for mass atrocities that we have not seen before in Gaza,” Munayyer said. “The rate of killing now is just crazy.”

Palestinians look for survivors after an Israeli airstrike in Rafah refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip on Oct. 12, 2023.