NASA Administrator Bill Nelson warns that Beijing could establish a foothold on the moon and try to dominate the most resource-rich locations on the lunar surface.
Vincent Thian/AP Photo

But he is clearly worried about China also gaining ground — and eyeing some of the same locations for its moon landings.

“China within the last decade has had enormous success and advances,” he said. “It is also true that their date for landing on the moon keeps getting closer and closer” based on the country’s announcements.

“And there are only so many places on the south pole of the moon that are adequate for what we think, at this point, for harvesting water and so forth,” he said.

Asked whether American astronauts will get back to the moon before China arrives, Nelson responded, “The good Lord willing.”

Still, not everyone is convinced Washington and Beijing are spiraling toward a moon brawl.

“I’m dubious,” said Victoria Samson, Washington director of the Secure World Foundation, which is dedicated to the peaceful use of outer space.

She noted that China, like the United States, is a party to the Outer Space Treaty, which bars nations from making territorial claims on any celestial body, including the moon.

It also will be difficult for any nation to maintain a long-term human presence in deep space, she said. “That seems unrealistic. It is going to be extremely challenging.”

But she agreed there could be competition between Washington and Beijing for “limited landing sites and resources” on the lunar surface.

“That’s where we have made the argument that there is a need to engage with China,” Samson said, “because of the possibility of landing near each other or having to provide emergency services to astronauts or taikonauts.”