Republicans’ path to the Senate majority continues to broaden ahead of Tuesday’s election– now including a state that Joe Biden carried by 7 points just two years ago.

The Senate race in New Hampshire is moving from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up” in POLITICO’s Election Forecast — a reflection of the tightening in that campaign in recent weeks. While Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan still has a narrow lead over Republican Don Bolduc, she is no longer a significant favorite.

The overall battle for the Senate majority continues to be a “Toss Up.” But the range of plausible outcomes now includes a sizable Republican majority: A sweep of the six “Toss Up” races would give the GOP 54 seats.

And if the two parties split the “Toss Up” races evenly, Republicans would still win a one-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats are banking on the power of incumbency and lingering unpopularity of some Republican nominees to overcome an increasingly rough political environment for the party in power.

New Hampshire is one of three Senate races changing in our latest ratings update, in addition to four governor’s races and 13 House races — with almost all of the shifts going in Republicans’ direction. The political environment in the closing days of the race continues to move toward the GOP.

Here are the three main takeaways from the latest ratings update:

Republican Tiffany Smiley, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks at a Republican Party event on Election Day in Issaquah, Wash., Aug. 2, 2022.