New Hampshire Republican U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate, Sept. 7, 2022, in Henniker, N.H.
Mary Schwalm/AP Photo

Trump himself has taken a pass on the race, as he has in most contested congressional primaries — seeing little need to alienate segments of the party or, perish the thought, suffer an embarrassing defeat.

Pappas is vulnerable: He holds a district Biden carried by 6 points, and New Hampshire is notoriously swingy.

National Republicans have put their thumb on the scale for Mowers: Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, which has ties to Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has run positive spots touting the repeat challenger, while the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership’s political arm has attacked Leavitt as a “woke Gen-Zer” who “records everything” on social media.

One town to watch: Manchester. The district’s largest city accounted for more than 1-in-10 of the total ballots cast in the 2020 primary, which Mowers won.

Second (District) to none

The stakes: The GOP contest for New Hampshire’s 2nd District could determine whether Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster cruises to reelection or has to wage what could be her hardest race yet.

Two very different candidates are vying for a chance to take her on. The frontrunner is Bob Burns, a longtime GOP activist who strongly opposes abortion rights, advocates for “national reciprocity for conceal carry permits” and has tied himself closely to Trump. Keene Mayor George Hansel, Burns’ top competitor, strikes a far different profile. He supports abortion rights, is an advocate for fighting climate change and frequently picks up crossover voters as the leader of a Democratic-leaning city.

House Democrats are so eager to face Burns that a Democratic super PAC is airing some $600,000 in TV ads to tout his conservative credentials to GOP voters. Hansel, meanwhile, is the beneficiary of spending from a newly created GOP PAC that has boosted more moderate candidates in primaries in New York and Florida. That group, American Liberty Action PAC, doesn’t have to reveal its donors until next week.

This district is a bit of a reach for Republicans — Trump lost it by 9 points in 2020 — but many GOP operatives believe that Kuster is a more vulnerable incumbent that Pappas. If Hansel can eke out a win over Burns, expect both of the state’s congressional seats to host highly competitive matchups.

A town to watch: Nashua. New Hampshire’s second-largest city provides about 10 percent of the GOP primary vote.

Rocky Rhode for incumbent governors

The stakes: Raimondo’s departure last year to join the Biden administration gave McKee the veneer of incumbency, but it didn’t come close to clearing the field.

Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea and businesswoman Helena Foulkes are locked in a tight, three-way race with McKee that has split Democrats in Rhode Island and across the country. Nancy Pelosi was in Providence on Sunday to campaign for Foulkes, the daughter of the House speaker’s longtime friend, Martha Dodd Buonanno.

If McKee falls, he’ll be the first (and almost certainly the only) incumbent governor to lose renomination this year. Of the 28 incumbents seeking reelection, 26 have won their primaries, with McKee and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu up on Tuesday.

Democratic challenger for Rhode Island governor, Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, center, speaks during a gubernatorial election forum hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Warwick, R.I., Sept. 8, 2022.