The most endangered Senate Republican incumbent — who’s trailing his reelection foe in one of the most closely divided states in the country — could face a toughvote just weeks out from Election Day on whether to enshrine same-sex marriage into law.
As Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer moves closer to a vote that would put Sen. Ron Johnson on defense in the home stretch of the midterms, the Wisconsin conservative is suddenly under the microscope on a social issue that he’s rarely focused on during his decade-plus in office. But it’s far from clear whether he’ll take that baby step to the center ahead of a Novembercontest against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who’s opened a slight lead in public polls.
Johnson surprised many fellow senators last month when he said he saw “no reason” to oppose what he described as unnecessary House-passed legislation designed to protect same-sex marriage, whichcould come to the floor as soon as next month. Then, when pressed later, he hedged on whether he’d vote yes or merely present. And he’s now pushing, alongside other Senate Republicans, for the bill to be amended before declaring his support.
“During the time he’s been back in Wisconsin over recess, he has spoken with a number of constituents who have concerns about the bill and the risk it may pose to religious liberty,” said Alexa Henning, Johnson’s spokesperson. “He is working with other senators on an amendment to try and remedy those concerns. The [same-sex marriage bill] is just another example of Democrats creating a state of fear over a settled issue in order to further divide Americans for their political benefit.”
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Backing the same-sex marriage bill, which Schumer has vowed to call a vote on without committing to a time frame, would be an unusually bipartisan movefor the MAGA-world favorite. And if Johnson does vote yes, it won’t be the only front where he’s avoiding the unpopular side of a major issue: Asked recently by POLITICO if Donald Trump should seek another term, the senator demurred that it’s up to the former president.
The incumbent himself, though, dismissed any suggestion that he’s making a calculated shift before the election.
“I vote the way I believe,” Johnson said in a brief interview earlier this month. “Always have.”
Taking up same-sex marriage legislation in September would give Democrats a plum opportunity to squeeze Johnson on an issue that more than 70 percent of Americans support, weeks before he faces off against Barnes. Even so, Johnson’s Democratic home-state colleague, Sen. Tammy Baldwin — who’s leading the effort to get the 10 Republican votes necessary to avoid a filibuster — isn’t counting on him to bring it home.
“We feel confident we will have the Republican support we need with or without Johnson,” said a Baldwin spokesperson.
No matter where Johnson falls on the same-sex marriage bill, Democrats and Republicans alike underscored that the onetime Tea Party icon and occasional GOP gadfly isn’t about to execute a full rebrand or centrist makeover. Yet as he trails Barnes in recent public polling, with one survey showing him behind by seven points, he doesn’t appear eager to hand Democrats a line of attack on social policy that has never been the center of his attention, especially when his favorability rating is already underwater.
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes speaks at a rally at John Marshall High School Friday in Milwaukee, July 15, 2022.