U.S. House candidate and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin speaks during a “Save America” rally at Alaska Airlines Center on July 9, 2022, in Anchorage, Alaska.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

Trump has made defeating Cheney a top priority since losing the 2020 election. He has raged against the Wyoming congresswoman for voting to impeach him after Jan. 6 and later helping to lead the investigation into his culpability for the insurrection.

Trump endorsed Hageman, an attorney and one-time supporter of Cheney’s, in early September. She quickly consolidated most of a fractured field looking to oust the three-term incumbent and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Hageman has relied on the Trump endorsement to propel her campaign, also landing endorsements from scores of Republican members of Congress looking to curry favor with the former president or take a parting shot at Cheney — or both. Hageman’s endorsers include House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who blessed the effort to boot Cheney from party leadership. Cheney has tried to tap into a network of support from the old guard of the Republican Party, both in the state and nationally, that includes her father, former President George W. Bush and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).

And while Cheney has significantly outraised Hageman, the challenger has held wide leads in every poll that has been publicly released. If Cheney ultimately loses on Tuesday, as expected, it means just two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump even have a shot of returning to Congress next year: Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who could face a competitive general election, and Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) who is a safe bet for another term in his deep-red district.

Any question mark left in Cheney-Hageman race comes down to uncertainty about how many Wyoming Democrats could cross over to vote in the Republican primary to back Cheney. Cheney and her allies have been explicitly courting Democrats, asking them to temporarily switch parties to try to push her over the finish line.

But should Cheney lose on Tuesday, she is unlikely to vanish. She has made it her mission to make sure Trump never returns to the White House — and has notably not ruled out a 2024 bid of her own.

Palin attempts comeback after decade-plus out of office

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin addresses supporters at the opening of her new campaign.