Black support for Democrats has been slipping slightly for the better part of a decade, since Barack Obama was last on the ballot in 2012.
Rogelio V. Solis/AP

Presley is the underdog against Reeves, and a defeat doesn’t mean his party is in a death spiral with Black voters nationally — Mississippi hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999. But the final results from Nov. 7 will be instructive, both in cities like Jackson and in rural counties that comprise the “Black Belt” that stretches across the South.

Also keep your eyes on the state legislative races in Virginia, which also has a sizable Black population.

Two of the most competitive state Senate races are in Southeast Virginia districts where Black residents make up at least a quarter of the population, as are three contested state House districts stretching from Petersburg to Hampton Roads.

Those races could be the majority-makers for each party in the pitched battle to control both chambers of the General Assembly. They’ll also provide more answers about where Black voters stand — and how enthusiastic they are — going into 2024.